Qantas, American, and Alaska Airlines Maintain Trans-Pacific Reach as Australian Arrivals to the US Rebound 5.6 Percent in June Following H1 Decline

Trans-Pacific travel from Australia to the United States logged a 6.5 percent decline during the first half of 2026 before surging 5.6 percent in June to 90,870 visitor arrivals, underpinned by deep carrier alliances between Qantas, American Airlines, and Alaska Airlines.

Data published by the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) reveals that 438,052 Australian-resident visitors entered the United States between January and June 2026, marking a 6.5 percent drop from the 468,474 recorded in H1 2025.

However, June delivered a strong inflection point: Australian arrivals rose 5.6 percent year-on-year to 90,870 visitors, breaking a 12-month sequence of monthly declines and positioning Australia as the eighth-largest overseas source market for the month.

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High Economic Export Value and Carrier Network Alliances

Despite first-half softness, Australian travelers remain among the highest-value long-haul visitors in US tourism. US Department of Commerce figures estimate an average travel export of US$6,819 per Australian arrival, with total travel exports from Australia generating US$7 billion in 2024.

Airlines maintain extensive trans-Pacific capacity to capture this high-spending market:

• Qantas & American Airlines: Operate a joint business providing nonstop trans-Pacific flights and major gateway connections.
• Qantas & Alaska Airlines: Offer codeshare connectivity across US domestic networks from gateways including Los Angeles (LAX), San Francisco (SFO), New York (JFK), and Honolulu (HNL).
• United Airlines & Delta Air Lines: Provide competing direct trans-Pacific routes and domestic feed.

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Second-Half Outlook and NTTO Annual Target

Reaching the official NTTO full-year forecast of 973,000 Australian arrivals (+1.5% growth over 2025) will require approximately 535,000 visitors in the second half of 2026—a 9 percent increase over H2 2025 performance.

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1. Monthly Australian Visitor Arrivals to the United States (H1 2026)

Month (2026)	Official NTTO Arrival Volume	Year-on-Year Change vs 2025
January 2026	71,334	-11.6%
February 2026	59,822	-2.4%
March 2026	57,637	-3.7%
April 2026	76,773	-14.1%
May 2026	81,616	-10.5%
June 2026	90,870	+5.6%
H1 2026 Total	438,052	-6.5%

2. Travel Purpose Breakdown (H1 2026)

Category	H1 2026 Volume	YoY Change	June 2026 Volume	June YoY Change
Pleasure / Leisure	379,096	-7.3%	83,023	+7.6%
Business	53,925	-1.7%	7,229	-13.0%
Student	5,031	+4.8%	618	+5.6%

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Key Takeaways

• June Rebound (+5.6%): June 2026 generated 90,870 Australian arrivals, breaking a 12-month period of year-on-year contraction.
• $6,819 Spend per Visitor: Australian tourists average $6,819 per trip, making Australia a $7 billion export market for US tourism.
• Trans-Pacific Carrier Alliances: Qantas joint business with American Airlines and Alaska Airlines codeshare preserve gateway connectivity.
• H2 Target of 535,000: NTTO annual forecast of 973,000 arrivals requires a 9% year-on-year expansion during H2 2026.

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FAQ

How many Australians visited the US in the first half of 2026?

Preliminary NTTO data logged 438,052 Australian arrivals in H1 2026, down 6.5% compared to H1 2025.

Did Australian travel to the US increase in June 2026?

Yes. June 2026 recorded 90,870 Australian arrivals, representing a 5.6% year-on-year increase.

What is the economic value of Australian tourists to the US economy?

The US Department of Commerce estimates average travel exports of $6,819 per Australian visitor, contributing $7 billion in total travel exports in 2024.