OECD 2026 Global Tourism Data Reveals Uneven Recovery: US Inbound Arrivals Fall 5.5 Percent as Canada and Germany Lag 2019 Benchmarks

Fresh findings from the OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 report reveal an uneven global recovery, with US international arrivals falling 5.5 percent between 2024 and 2025 to sit 14 percent below 2019 benchmarks.

The latest OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 dataset highlights an increasingly fragmented international travel environment.

While destinations including Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Egypt have surpassed pre-pandemic (2019) international visitor volumes, several mature Western and Asian tourism markets continue to experience structural recovery headwinds.

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Inbound Contractions Across Major Travel Markets

• United States: Inbound arrivals remain 14 percent below 2019 levels, with international visitors declining by approximately 5.5 percent between 2024 and 2025.
• Canada: International arrivals trail 2019 benchmarks by 11 percent, with visitor volume slipping 0.6 percent between 2024 and 2025.
• Germany: Inbound arrivals sit 6 percent below pre-pandemic levels, with 2025 visitor numbers edging down 0.8 percent.
• Thailand: Remains 17 percent below 2019 levels, impacted primarily by the delayed return of Chinese long-haul outbound travel.

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Pacific and South American Rebound Corridors

In contrast to North American and European contractions, Southern Hemisphere destinations demonstrated resilience:

• Australia: Recorded approximately 8 percent growth between 2024 and 2025, closing its 2019 deficit to 6 percent.
• New Zealand: Advanced steadily to sit 9 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
• South America: Peru stands 22 percent below 2019 benchmarks, while Argentina trails by 23 percent despite consistent annual gains.

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1. OECD 2026 International Tourism Recovery Matrix

Country / Destination	2024–2025 Inbound Growth Trend	Deficit vs. 2019 Pre-Pandemic Level	Key Driver / Market Influence
United States	-5.5% YoY Decline	-14% Below 2019	High travel costs, visa delays, soft long-haul demand
Canada	-0.6% YoY Decline	-11% Below 2019	High travel costs, long-haul aviation constraints
Germany	-0.8% YoY Decline	-6% Below 2019	Slow European economic growth, cautious long-haul demand
Thailand	Annual Growth	-17% Below 2019	Slower return of Chinese outbound source market
Peru	Steady Annual Recovery	-22% Below 2019	Recovery in Machu Picchu / Sacred Valley corridors
Argentina	Year-on-Year Growth	-23% Below 2019	Airline expansion into South American gateways
Australia	+8.0% YoY Growth	-6% Below 2019	Strong transpacific and Asian leisure demand
New Zealand	Steady Growth	-9% Below 2019	Transpacific airline capacity expansion
Saudi Arabia / Morocco / Egypt	Outperforming Growth	EXCEEDED 2019 Levels	aggressive infrastructure & visa facilitation

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Key Takeaways

• US Inbound Decline: US international arrivals dropped 5.5% YoY in 2025, remaining 14% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
• Canada & Germany Plateau: Canadian tourism slipped 0.6% (-11% vs 2019), while Germany dropped 0.8% (-6% vs 2019).
• Australia Gains 8%: Strong transpacific route capacity pushed Australian arrivals up 8% YoY, closing its gap to -6%.
• Uneven Global Landscape: Emerging markets (Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt) exceed 2019 levels, outperforming traditional long-haul destinations.

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FAQ

According to the OECD 2026 report, how far behind 2019 levels is US international tourism?

US international arrivals remain 14% below 2019 pre-pandemic benchmarks, following a 5.5% year-on-year drop between 2024 and 2025.

Which countries have fully recovered and exceeded their 2019 tourism levels?

Destinations such as Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Egypt have outperformed pre-pandemic visitor benchmarks.

Why is Thailand still trailing its pre-pandemic tourism figures?

Thailand remains 17% below its 2019 baseline, primarily due to the slower recovery of Chinese outbound group travel.